The Cyprus dispute goes back to the early 1960s, when the Greek Cypriots started to gradually erode the constitutional rights of the Turkish community on the Island.  There were a series of pogroms and massacres of the Turkish population.  The fascist coup in Cyprus, aimed at annexation of the island by Greece, led to Turkish military intervention in 1974, as a Guarantor Power to protect Turkish Cypriots from further persecution and violence.  This involved a spectacular paratrooper operation that resulted in the island being divided upon ethnic lines into North (Turkish) and Greek Cyprus.

After failures to reach a political settlement, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) was founded in 1983.  The Greek Cypriot administration entered the EU as a full member in 2004.  That same year the Greek Cypriots blocked a UN plan to end the conflict.  It has seen an on-and-off Peace Process in the following years, including a failed 2017 initiative in Switzerland.

The deteriorating relations between Turkiye and Israel, as a consequence of the Israeli attacks on the population of Gaza and the West Bank, has had an impact on the Cyprus dispute.  Israel has opportunistically aimed to increase its influence in the eastern Mediterranean and establish a population presence in Cyprus.

This has led to increasing Israeli-Greek Cypriot military ties

In recent years, the Eastern Mediterranean has witnessed the emergence of a new strategic alignment.  What initially appeared as ad-hoc cooperation between Israel, the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus (GCASC), and Greece has steadily transformed into an embedded Military, Intelligence, and Energy infrastructure, which has given Israel leverage over regional dynamics.

During late 2024, press reports emerged that the Greek Cypriot administration was attempting to incorporate Israel’s air defense system into its own defence system.

Israel offered its advanced military systems, including the Barak MX air defence network, which gained it access to the Greek Cypriot administration’s military infrastructure.  The Barak MX, an integrated and layered air defence system, offers Israel several strategic advantages in the region.  First, Barak MX provides anti-aircraft coverage over a large area— which directly threatens Turkish aircraft, helicopters, and drones over and around the island of Cyprus.

Second, and more important, the ELM-2084 radar system used by the Barak MX acts as a long-range Surveillance and Intelligence gathering asset for the Greek Cypriot administration, Greece and Israel.  When deployed in the south of the island, the ELM-2084 radar is capable of covering practically all of the Eastern Mediterranean.

It now acts as a monitoring outpost of Israel’s Intelligence network, integrated into its entire military system.  Greece also recently signed a €3 billion deal with Israel to acquire the PULS missile system, a core component of its planned air defence network, dubbed the “Achilles Shield”.

Israel has expanded its zone of influence in the Eastern Mediterranean through this— directly challenging EU defence and security co-operation among member states.  With the GCASC opting for defence and security cooperation with Israel—instead of with EU member states—Israel has acquired leverage on an EU member State.

In addition—with the British base in Cyprus operating as an adjunct of Israel’s war effort in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran—EU member-state sovereignty is fatally compromised in this region.

There have been concrete signs of the significance of this.  Israel is said to have used the island for Military and Intelligence purposes during its attacks on Iran.  It is also noted that airports in the southern part of the island are actively employed by Israeli Intelligence, and these facilities are used by Israeli military aircraft to mount operations over Lebanon.

There has also been a policy of energy network expansion.

On 2nd January 2020, the EastMed Pipeline Accord was signed in Athens by the leaders of Greece, Cyprus, and Israel.  In July 2020, the Israeli Government officially approved the Accord—allowing the signatory countries to go forward with plans to complete the pipeline by 2025.

Although implementation has been delayed, plans for the natural gas pipeline linking Israel’s offshore reservoirs to Europe are now being activated, according to Israeli Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen, following a high-level meeting in Athens with counterparts from Greece, Cyprus and the United States.

“There has been very significant progress on the possibility of building a gas pipeline. This is an idea that was discussed in the past—and now it’s back in play. The Americans are now willing to take on a major role.”

The talks took place at the 6th meeting of the Partnership for Transatlantic Energy Cooperation, a two-day forum hosted by the Atlantic Council in Athens.  Among those participating were the Greek Energy Minister, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and the Cypriot Energy Minister.

Cohen suggested that renewed US engagement under President Trump’s administration, which treats energy as a national security priority, has given the project new momentum. Cohen stated:

“The goal is to build an infrastructure corridor that provides an alternative to the Russian energy route and bypasses the Houthis as well.  For the Europeans, the goal is, of course, to reduce prices.”

Ankara views these developments with concern, as an energy-security challenge.  The Israeli-Greek Cypriot coordination, backed by the US, not only contests Turkiye’s Blue Homeland doctrine, but also undermines Türkiye’s role as an energy hub in Eurasian transit. (The Blue Homeland doctrine is Turkiye’s maritime defence strategy encompassing its territorial sea, continental shelf, and exclusive economic zone around the Black Sea, as well as its claims of continental shelf and EEZ in the eastern Mediterranean, and the Aegean.)

Then there is Zionist expansion to Cyprus itself.

The increasing number of Israeli citizens acquiring property and residence rights in the Greek Cypriot administration area establishes a new form of demographic influence over Cyprus.  In recent years, a growing number of Israeli citizens have gained “golden visas”—a residency-by-investment scheme that allows non-EU nationals to acquire a residency by investing in property.  The numbers are said to be around 20,000 Israelis.

Cyprus has issued thousands of these visas with very little oversight.  Other EU nations, including Spain, have restricted land sales to non-EU nationals.

Cypriot media outlets, including Politis and Cyprus Mail, have recently published investigative reports about the growth of Israeli ‘gated communities’ on the island.

Between 2021 and 2025, Israelis have purchased over 1,400 properties in Larnaca, over 1,100 in Limassol, and more than 1,200 in Paphos—often located near ports, resorts, and strategic sites, such as army bases.  In total, almost 4,000 Israeli-linked properties have been acquired across southern Cyprus since 2021.  Real estate consultant Loizos Loizou told Cyprus Mail recently:

“Israelis tend to buy large land parcels, featuring spas and resorts—gated communities, so to speak.  Pyla has become their unofficial hub.”

Between 2018 and 2025, the number of Israelis residing in Cyprus has surged from 6,500 to more than 20,000.  This mounting Israeli immigration is especially seen in the coastal city of Larnaca and its outskirts.

Israeli newspaper Haaretz recently reported that Israel’s Mossad Intelligence Agency was active in Cyprus and was using it for “safehouse operations”.  Ynet also noted how Israelis were “storming” the real estate market in Cyprus.  Hebrew media has monitored the growing trend of Israeli land acquisition in Cyprus over the past couple of years.  Haaretz reported in August 2023 that Israelis were buying “anything in sight” on the island, calling it “the second Israel”.

During the 2025 War with Iran, scores of Israelis made their way to Cyprus on boats, to escape from Iranian retaliation.  A great number of Israelis are buying property in Cyprus, in part due to its proximity to Israel and the relatively low cost of living.

Recent property purchases by Israeli people in the GCASC are, however, not only an issue of tourism or real estate.  The main Greek Cypriot opposition party leader, Stefanos Stefanou, described the situation as a planned settlement strategy and warned that “Greek Cyprus” is slipping away.

His party AKEL has not hesitated to describe the current situation in GCASC as the next country “occupied by Israel”.

In August of 2024 the Israeli Defence Ministry called on Cyprus and Greece for military support.  The use of Cypriot bases would, however, bring Cyprus into wars which it could not afford.  After being directly threatened by Hezbollah for its role in supporting Israeli military operations against Lebanon, Cyprus declared its neutrality.

However, the increasing number of Israelis settling in, and buying property in Cyprus, along with whispers round the island that the IDF is eying up Cypriot ports in Larnaca and Paphos for military use represent a dangerous development.

It is clear that Turkiye feels increasingly encircled by growing cooperation between Israel, Greece and Cyprus.  Hakan Fidan, the Turkish Foreign Minister, said recently that, after Iran, Tel Aviv could turn its attention to Ankara.  Several Israeli politicians and media outlets have already made statements to that effect.

The Turkish Foreign Minister said:

“After Iran, Israel cannot exist without an enemy;  as you know, it has to produce a certain rhetoric…  It has decided to designate Turkiye as the new enemy…  Israel, Greece and the Greek Cypriots are encircling Turkiye, or creating such an impression…  Greece is already a NATO member, and the Greek Cypriot side has EU backing.  What strategic logic such cooperation or a military alliance serves is something they have not been able to explain to me.”

Fidan warned Greece that its cooperation with Israel amounted to “risky” policies that could draw it into wider conflicts.

Shay Gal, an Israeli strategist, writing for Israel Hayom last year, outlined the security threat Israel sees from Turkish North Cyprus:

“Turkey can deploy armed drones from Lefkoniko airfield—converted from an abandoned airport into a drone base amid regional gas disputes—far more rapidly than from its mainland bases.  Since May 2021, Turkey officially stationed armed Bayraktar TB2 drones there, and more advanced Akinci UAVs were publicly showcased at a military parade in July 2024.  These UAVs can rapidly target Israeli gas rigs, naval vessels, and strategic sites.  In addition, Turkey’s advanced ATMACA anti-ship missiles, with a range exceeding 200 km, could directly threaten Israeli maritime assets, including its critical natural gas platforms.  Moreover, Turkey’s new Typhoon ballistic missile is capable of precisely hitting targets up to 560 kilometers away.  According to Western intelligence, missile bases in Kyrenia and Famagusta are already prepared for their deployment, posing Turkey’s first direct ballistic threat to Israel, with the capability of striking Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa Bay.”

He described Turkish North Cyprus as

“…a hub for terrorism financing and money laundering, with Iranian and Turkish illicit funds flowing through shell companies to support Hamas and other terror groups.  Documents seized during Operation “Guardian of the Walls” (2021) and “Iron Swords” (2023) in Gaza revealed Hamas’s plans to establish an operational branch in Turkey and Northern Cyprus, tasked with carrying out attacks against Israelis in Europe.  Furthermore, in 2023, a Quds Force cell uncovered in the region planned attacks against Israeli targets in Europe.  This Iranian cell underscores Northern Cyprus’s status as a safe haven for anti-Israel operations.”

Gal suggested that Israel, Greece and Cyprus need to think and then act to end “Turkish occupation of Northern Cyprus”.  He stated that Israel would join Greece and Cyprus to fight Turkiye not for humanitarian grounds or the freedom of Cyprus but, primarily for its own security:

“It is not Israel’s role or desire to liberate Northern Cyprus…  However, if the threat from the area of Northern Cyprus reaches a critical threshold, Israel’s strategic posture must shift.  Israel, in coordination with Greece and Cyprus, must prepare a contingency operation for liberating the island’s north.  Such an operation would neutralize Turkish reinforcement capabilities from the mainland, eliminate air-defense systems in Northern Cyprus, destroy intelligence and command centers, and finally remove Turkish forces, restoring internationally recognized Cypriot sovereignty.  This contingency plan could be termed “Poseidon’s Wrath”, named after the Greek god of the sea, highlighting maritime dominance and the devastating consequences of a worst-case scenario.  The name underscores Israel’s focus on safeguarding strategic maritime assets and maintaining open sea lanes critical for regional security.  This would remain a contingency plan:  Israel does not seek confrontation but must remain fully prepared.  The Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, previously regarded as a highly unlikely scenario, was eventually executed.  Turkey… should internalize this lesson.”

Given Israel’s insatiable expansionist drive—always for good ‘defensive’ reasons—Turkiye will have to wake up from its complacency and take steps to protect its interests if the country is to maintain its position as a regional Power.  The alternative is to sink back into the pre-Ataturk morass.